The Fed has a clear strategy, but the economic outlook is unclear

first_imgThe title of this post is a quote from Federal Reserve Governor William Dudley from Thursday, October 15. Besides sounding like a line from an Abbott and Costello bit, I believe with those words The Fed has raised the white flag with regard to “Liftoff 2015.” The Fed and the market are coming to an understanding and that understanding is that Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), and the risk-taking mindset it creates, is back for the foreseeable future.In my opinion, The Fed isn’t raising rates this year. I harbored strong doubts after they didn’t raise in September but kept a healthy dose of fear that a raise was still possible in 2015. I also felt that the uncertainty The Fed was bringing to investors with their public dithering was damaging. The uncertainty is now gone. They missed their chance in June and September, and now they can’t tighten. The calamity a raise in December would cause is too great. The markets would be caught too far off-sides as investors have, gradually at first, and then with increasing rapidity, discounted The Fed well into 2016.As we noted in last week’s post, a weakening of the strong U.S. Dollar (USD) sparked a rebound (sort of a dead cat bounce) in commodities, which in turn triggered rallies in emerging market currencies, global equities, and corporate and municipal debt. The culprit was continued bad news in China and generally bad news in Europe. In last week’s post, I stated that it would take a significant change in the supply-and-demand technical for commodities such as crude oil to keep a risk rally going. A weaker dollar just couldn’t do it alone. To some degree, I was right. As we began this week, equities sagged, emerging market currencies fell, and commodities declined. continue reading » 16SHARESShareShareSharePrintMailGooglePinterestDiggRedditStumbleuponDeliciousBufferTumblrlast_img read more

Jennings County Woman Shoots Unwanted Guest

first_imgAuthorities have not filed charges yet in an incident that led to a Jennings County woman allegedly shooting an unwanted visitor.Police responded to the home of Brenda Bowers, just north of Butlerville, on Saturday morning around 11 a.m.Bowers found a 28-year-old man in the bedroom of her 16-year-old granddaughter, police said.When Bowers allegedly confronted the man with a handgun the firearm discharged striking the man in the right ankle. The man identified as Daniel Sidwell, of Bartholomew County, was taken to an Indianapolis hospital for treatment.Bowers has not been charged but the incident remains under investigation.last_img read more