Longevity improvements will continue, says demographics expert

first_imgPension funds should not count themselves rich as a consequence of the recent unexpected slowdown of life expectancy improvements according to a renowned American demographer.James Vaupel, founder of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, said there was no reason to assume that the upward trend of the past 150 years would end soon.Since 1840, life expectancy had increased by 2.5 years per decade on average, but recent prognoses suggested a slowdown or even a ‘plateau’.  Speaking at the Cass Business School’s annual longevity conference in Amsterdam last week, Vaupel rejected the suggestion that there was a limit to human longevity. He pointed out that the slowdown relative to the prognoses had only been observed in a limited number of countries. James VaupelCredit: Bengt Oberger Vaupel argued that extrapolation was a better way of predicting life expectancy than actuarial forecasts.He highlighted longevity-boosting developments such as potential treatments for cancer and ageing, as well as the rejuvenation of skin and organs.“For an assessment of the future, you could take into account the predictions of experts who often turn out to be wrong, or look at risk factors or causes of death,” he said.“But time and again, the only useful predictor appears to be extrapolation of historic data.”Vaupel claimed it was more likely that life expectancy would increase spectacularly than that it was to stabilise.He noted that increased longevity had coincided with a strong concentration of mortality, as more people died around their predicted life expectancy.Vaupel said: “In the past, people had a fair chance of dying during the course of their life, but nowadays the odds of dying in your 70s or 80s in developed countries are very low, and most people die around the same age.“Japan, where women die massively around 90, is a clear example.”Healthier for longerThe demographer contended that people were able to keep on working for longer to keep pensions affordable, “as they also stay healthier for longer”.“The health and life expectancy of a 65-year old now are the same as for a 55-year olds in 1970,” he added.Vaupel, who is 73, put the relative increase of unhealthy years in the last stage of life into perspective by arguing that, with heart problems and high cholesterol, he was ill by definition.“But thanks to my pacemaker and the right medication, I am able to do my job very well,” he saidWhile some experts have predicted an increase in dementia cases, Vaupel played down the concerns, “as in my calculations, which have also been confirmed by other studies elsewhere, future generations will develop the illness later in their life”.Vaupel voiced support for the Netherlands’ decision to set the number of years in retirement at 18.26 years, and to raise the retirement age for the state pension in line with life expectancy improvements.However, he acknowledged that the duration of retirement was up for discussion: “In Denmark it is 14.5 years. What is that based on?”Vaupel said he was worried about the longevity gap between low and high educated workers, which he observed as widening and difficult to solve.“But if it is pretty certain that somebody is living a shorter life, the level of the pension could be adjusted,” he suggested.As an example, he indicated that some insurers offered people with an “impaired life” higher payments through their annuities. The argument that the age of the oldest living human had not risen for a while “was simply not true from a long term perspective”, he added.last_img read more

Lakers vs. Warriors highlights: Klay Thompson scores 44 points, ties NBA record

first_imgThe highlights from the Los Angeles Lakers’ home game against the Golden State Warriors on Martin Luther King Jr. Day (all times are Pacific Time):6:28 pm – PregameLonzo Ball is the latest member of the Los Angeles Lakers roster to go down with an injury. While Ball is expected to miss four to six weeks with a Grade 3 sprain suffered Saturday night in a loss to the Houston Rockets. DeMarcus Cousins makes his second start for the Warriors this season, after coming back from a torn left Achilles tendon. Cousin made 1-of-2 free throw attempts to give Golden State 3-0 lead against the Lakers in the first quarter.7:53 pmKlay Thompson has scored seven of the Warriors 10 points with 6:38 left in the first quarter against the Lakers. Cousins goes to the bench after his second personal foul.Klay #SPLASH💦📺 @NBAonTNT pic.twitter.com/0S9XlOHYtk— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) January 22, 2019Thompson is a product of Santa Margarita High School and the son of former Laker Mychal Thompson.As expected, a big game in Los Angeles will bring out the celebrities. 9:32 pmThe Warriors have scored a season-high 45 points in the third quarter and take a 110-80 lead into the fourth quarter.Thompson scored 23 of his 44 points in the third quarter. Durant has 20 points and Steph Curry has a double-double with 11 points and 12 assists.PreviousGolden State Warriors’ Klay Thompson scores on a breakaway dunk against the Los Angeles Lakers during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)Golden State Warriors’ Klay Thompson reacts after making a 3-point basket against the Los Angeles Lakers during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)Los Angeles Lakers’ JaVale McGee (7) shoots over Golden State Warriors’ Kevon Looney (5) during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez) SoundThe gallery will resume insecondsBoxer Manny Pacquiao smiles as he attends an NBA basketball game between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors, Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)Golden State Warriors’ DeMarcus Cousins (0) grabs a rebound against the Los Angeles Lakers during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)Los Angeles Lakers’ Ivica Zubac (40) blocks a shot from Golden State Warriors’ DeMarcus Cousins, center, during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)Actor Mahershala Ali, left, watches an NBA basketball game between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors, Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)Los Angeles Lakers’ Ivica Zubac, top, shoots over Golden State Warriors’ Shaun Livingston (34) during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)Los Angeles Lakers’ Brandon Ingram (14) shoots over Draymond Green during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)Los Angeles Lakers’ Ivica Zubac (40) dunks past Golden State Warriors’ Andre Iguodala left, and Draymond Green during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)Golden State Warriors’ DeMarcus Cousins (0) grabs a rebound next to Los Angeles Lakers’ Tyson Chandler, center, during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)Golden State Warriors’ Stephen Curry (30) drives to basket as Los Angeles Lakers’ Ivica Zubac, center, and Kyle Kuzma (0) defend during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)Golden State Warriors’ Klay Thompson scores on a breakaway dunk against the Los Angeles Lakers during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)Golden State Warriors’ Klay Thompson reacts after making a 3-point basket against the Los Angeles Lakers during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)NextShow Caption1 of 12Golden State Warriors’ Klay Thompson reacts after making a 3-point basket against the Los Angeles Lakers during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)ExpandIngram leads the Lakers with 17 points and five rebounds while Kuzma has 16 points. Coming off the bench, Ivica Zubac has contributed with 14 points and Michael Beasley has scored 13 points.9:56 pm — Fourth quarterIn his third game with the Lakers, Alex Caruso has made the most of his opportunity tonight. He has six points and two blocks.The Golden State Warriors defeat the Los Angeles Lakers 130-111 at the Staples Center. Thompson had a game-high 44 points while Durant recorded 20 points, six rebounds and four assists.Ingram led the Lakers with 17 points, five rebounds and three assists. Kuzma had 16 points in the loss. 7:41 pm 8:34 pmThe Lakers are trying to keep the game close in the final minutes before halftime but the Warriors have an answer for everything Los Angeles tries to do. Golden State leads LA 60-49 with 2:18 left in the second quarter.Iguodala elevates, hangs, and throws it down!#DubNation 63#LakeShow 53WATCH on @NBAonTNT pic.twitter.com/woG1o7W0cd— NBA (@NBA) January 22, 2019 Rapper Snoop Dogg and Jordan Bell of the Warriors are Long Beach natives. 7:56 pmIngram misses the and-one free throw attempt but Kyle Kuzma makes tip shot for the Lakers’ first lead of the game. Golden State is down 14-12. 8:11 PMGolden State leads Los Angeles 29-24 at the end of the first quarter. AD Quality Auto 360p 720p 1080p Top articles1/5READ MOREUCLA alum Kenny Clark signs four-year contract extension with PackersOn Monday, the point guard arrived on crutches before riding on the back of a cart at Staples Center, where the Lakers’ will host the Golden State Warriors. Newsroom GuidelinesNews TipsContact UsReport an Error After missing the shot, Thompson took a seat on the bench and might be done for the night as the Warriors lead the Lakers 107-73 with 1:58 left in the third quarter. Thompson has 44 points in 27 minutes. 8:26 pmThompson continues to cement his place in basketball history. He moves up to 19th on the NBA’s all-list of made three-pointers (1,686). He passes Lakers forward LeBron James and former Laker Steve Nash.With this #SPLASH💦, Klay passed both LeBron James and Steve Nash on the NBA’s all-time made threes list.He’s now 19th in NBA history with 1,686 three-pointers made. pic.twitter.com/3rvG7hTe6T— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) January 22, 2019 9:23 pmThompson was 10-for-10 from the 3-point line, tying Ty Lawson’s record, against the Lakers before finally missing his first 3-pointer. With the LA defense trying to contain Thompson, the Lakers are leaving players like Kevin Durant with wide open opportunities inside the paint. 8:41 pmGolden State takes a 10 point lead into the locker room against LA, 65-55, for halftime at Staples Center.PreviousLos Angeles Lakers’ JaVale McGee, top, works for a rebound against Golden State Warriors’ Stephen Curry (30) during the first half of an NBA basketball game Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)Los Angeles Lakers’ Brandon Ingram (14) shoots between Golden State Warriors’ Stephen Curry, right ,and Kevon Looney (5) during the first half of an NBA basketball game Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez) SoundThe gallery will resume insecondsLos Angeles Lakers’ Brandon Ingram (14) is defended by Golden State Warriors’ Draymond Green (23) during the first half of an NBA basketball game Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)Golden State Warriors’ Klay Thompson (11) works for a rebound against Los Angeles Lakers’ Tyson Chandler during the first half of an NBA basketball game Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)Los Angeles Lakers’ JaVale McGee, top, works for a rebound against Golden State Warriors’ Stephen Curry (30) during the first half of an NBA basketball game Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)NextShow Caption1 of 4Los Angeles Lakers’ JaVale McGee, top, works for a rebound against Golden State Warriors’ Stephen Curry (30) during the first half of an NBA basketball game Monday, Jan. 21, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)ExpandKlay Thompson scored 21 points in the first half against the Lakers. Kevin Durant added 10 points, four rebounds and three blocks. Brandon Ingram had 13 points and four rebounds for the Lakers while Kyle Kuzma added 11 points. 9:03 pm — Start of the third quarterThe halftime break didn’t interrupt Thompson’s rhythm. He has 35 points against the Lakers. Golden State leads LA 80-60 with 9:33 left in the third quarter. 8:20 pm — Start of the second quarterThe Warriors are starting to pull away in the second quarter against the Lakers.🔥 @ShaunLivingston ➡️ @boogiecousins 🔥📺 @NBAonTNT pic.twitter.com/Kv1GXmeKc8— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) January 22, 2019 Thompson went made 5 of 7 field goals for 11 points. He also has three rebounds. Durant had six points and three rebounds. Ingram led the Lakers with six points and two rebounds. The lead is short lived for the Lakers. A dunk by Kevin Durant leads to a timeout called by the Lakers. Warriors on a 13-4 scoring run in the first quarter. Lakers beat reporter Kyle Goon tweeted Monday morning that Brandon Ingram will start at point guard against the Warriors. With Ball out, Josh Hart joins the starting lineup for LA.last_img read more

Quarterly Price Gains Slow Declines Anticipated

first_imgQuarterly Price Gains Slow; Declines Anticipated Share Clear Capital Distressed sales Home Prices 2014-03-06 Tory Barringer An early look at housing data in February shows a severe slowdown in home price growth as distressed sales activity grows stronger.Clear Capital released earlier this week its latest Home Data Index (HDI) Market Report, recording only a 1 percent gain in home prices over the quarter ending last month. That figure is down from a 2.5 percent pace of growth for the January quarter.While many price indicators have pointed to slowdowns over the last few months, the latest trend could be the start of something worse, says Dr. Alex Villacorta, VP of research and analytics at Clear Capital.“Our early data shows national quarterly price gains are falling at a rapid pace and suggest overall prices could dip into negative territory soon if current conditions continue,” he said.Three out of the 15 lowest performing metro markets in the latest HDI reported slight price declines over the quarter, while the remaining 12 were mostly flat. With winter not quite over yet, near-term price declines “are not out of the question,” according to Clear Capital.Adding to the problem is a 1.8 percentage point uptick in national REO saturation, which stood at 22.7 percent as of the end of February—further threatening price trends.“Since the market fallout in 2006, home prices have dramatically declined during sustained periods of rising distressed sale activity,” Villacorta explained. “Over the last two years, however, rising distressed sales have been offset by investor demand, which is not guaranteed to be present in 2014.”He added:  “Though it is not unusual to see rising distressed activity over the winter months, the current housing picture gives reason to be concerned. If we don’t see a correction come spring, the housing market may be in for a long year.”center_img March 6, 2014 479 Views in Daily Dose, Data, Headlines, Newslast_img read more