The Fed has a clear strategy, but the economic outlook is unclear

first_imgThe title of this post is a quote from Federal Reserve Governor William Dudley from Thursday, October 15. Besides sounding like a line from an Abbott and Costello bit, I believe with those words The Fed has raised the white flag with regard to “Liftoff 2015.” The Fed and the market are coming to an understanding and that understanding is that Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), and the risk-taking mindset it creates, is back for the foreseeable future.In my opinion, The Fed isn’t raising rates this year. I harbored strong doubts after they didn’t raise in September but kept a healthy dose of fear that a raise was still possible in 2015. I also felt that the uncertainty The Fed was bringing to investors with their public dithering was damaging. The uncertainty is now gone. They missed their chance in June and September, and now they can’t tighten. The calamity a raise in December would cause is too great. The markets would be caught too far off-sides as investors have, gradually at first, and then with increasing rapidity, discounted The Fed well into 2016.As we noted in last week’s post, a weakening of the strong U.S. Dollar (USD) sparked a rebound (sort of a dead cat bounce) in commodities, which in turn triggered rallies in emerging market currencies, global equities, and corporate and municipal debt. The culprit was continued bad news in China and generally bad news in Europe. In last week’s post, I stated that it would take a significant change in the supply-and-demand technical for commodities such as crude oil to keep a risk rally going. A weaker dollar just couldn’t do it alone. To some degree, I was right. As we began this week, equities sagged, emerging market currencies fell, and commodities declined. continue reading » 16SHARESShareShareSharePrintMailGooglePinterestDiggRedditStumbleuponDeliciousBufferTumblrlast_img read more

IORP trialogue ‘close to successful closure’, says Eurogroup president

first_imgNegotiations on the revised IORP Directive are “close to successful closure”, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, president of the Eurogroup, said ahead of a trialogue meeting on 15 June.The Dutch finance minister said the “next and hopefully last” trialogue meeting between the European Commission, member states and European Parliament to settle details of the Directive was due to take place this evening.He provided the update when addressing the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (ECON) on 14 June during a meeting discussing the soon-to-conclude Dutch presidency of the Council of the EU.Dijsselbloem said the council was “working very hard to facilitate the finalisation of the negotiations between the co-legislators” on the proposal for IORP II. “I think we are close to a successful closure there,” added Dijsselbloem.ECON is chaired by Italian MEP Roberto Gualtieri, who Dijsselbloem noted had already mentioned today’s scheduled trialogue meeting in his remarks to the committee.Dijsselbloem’s comments on the IORP negotiations come after Brian Hayes, Irish MEP and the rapporteur on the project of the directive’s revision, earlier this month said that disagreements remained on cross-border funding and the use of custodians  – referred to as depositories within the legislation.“We have made progress in a number of key areas, but it’s fair to say quite a number of outstanding issues remain,” he said on the occasion of the launch of a business plan for a European pension-tracing service in Brussels on 1 June.He said the discussions were “very intensive”.Thomas Mann, another MEP and a member of the Employment and Social Affairs Committee of the European Parliament, had previously spoken about tension over the designation of pension funds as financial service providers but still said he hoped the revised IORP law would be finalised by June at the latest.last_img read more

Taarabt back as QPR lose

first_imgCesena 1 QPR 0Adel Taarabt made his return to action as QPR were beaten in the first match of their pre-season visit to Italy.Taarabt, back in the fold after a mooted transfer to French side Paris St Germain failed to materialise, played the entire 90 minutes.AdChoices广告There was also a return for Akos Buzsaky following a minor injury problem. He came on as a second-half substitute for Hogan Ephraim, who appeared to pick up a knock.Serie A outfit Cesena, whose line-up included former Chelsea striker Adrian Mutu, won the game with a goal five minutes from the end.last_img read more